Last week, the main investment markets were relatively calm, with key stock markets ending only slightly down. Interest rates in the US (Treasury yields) continued their gradual rise, ending just below 1.8%, having started the month at 1.6% (but by comparison at 2.27% at the end of last year). This rise therefore means that fixed income markets have already done much to discount a likely 0.25% rise in the Fed funds rate, which is widely expected to be announced in December.
Commodity prices were largely stable over the week, with the price of Brent crude continuing to hover around $52 per barrel, and gold steady at $1,252 per oz. One would expect the latter to rise in the event of any narrowing in the US opinion polls in Trump’s favour – the fact that the gold price has fallen 5% over the last three weeks is another bell weather indicator of the (currently) anticipated outcome.